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Projecting Linus Ullmark’s Next Contract

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Linus Ullmark

When the Senators traded for Linus Ullmark in June, they addressed their biggest area of concern. Last season, the Senators gave up 281 goals. That tied that for fifth worst in the NHL. Ignoring empty net goals, their team save percentage of .888 ranked dead last. To put it in perspective, Ullmark has a career SV% of .919. It’s obvious to anyone who watched the Senators play last season how vital it was to upgrade the goaltending position. For the upcoming season, the Senators have a quality number one goalie. But, what about the years after that? Let’s try to figure out what a new Ullmark contract should look like.



READ MORE: Getting to Know Travis Green

Time will tell whether Ullmark desires to sign his next contract with Ottawa. The first step in making him the long term goalie for the Senators is to have him want to be the long term goalie for the Senators. He has handled himself well in his media conversations, but until he signs a new contract, it’s all speculative. Ideally, he and his family enjoy the city, the team plays well in front of him, and management offers him a fair contract. What would that contract look like? Let’s dive into some comparables.

Connor Hellebuyck

Seven years, $8.5 million per season

Percentage of the Cap: 9.66%
Age at Start of Contract: 31
Age When Contract Expires: 38

Hellebuyck signed this contract a year in advance. In the lead-up, he finished top four in Vezina voting four times in a six year period. He won the Vezina in 2019-20. He has shown tremendous consistency with at least a .910 SV% in each of those six years. A key difference is how much of a workhorse Hellebuyck is. He had the most starts of any goalie during that six year timeframe.

Ilya Sorokin

Eight years, $8.25 million per season

Percentage of the Cap: 9.38%
Age at Start of Contract: 29
Age When Contract Expires: 36

Like Hellebuyck, Sorokin signed a year in advance. In the lead-up, Sorokin spent several years in the KHL before joining the New York Islanders in 2020-21. In two seasons as their starting goalie, he finished second and sixth in Vezina voting. He posted a .924 and .925 SV% in those two seasons. He had the sixth most starts in the NHL during those two years. He’s a tough comparable due to all the time he spent playing in Russia.

Juuse Saros

Eight years, $7.74 million per season

Percentage of the Cap: 8.80%
Age at Start of Contract: 30
Age When Contract Expires: 38

Like the goalies above, Saros signed a year in advance. If the Salary Cap rises to the projected $92 million, his contract will eat up 8.4% of it. Saros has earned Vezina votes in four straight seasons, finishing sixth, third, fourth and fifth. He is a true workhorse goalie. He has started 60 plus games, three seasons in a row. During that time, his 194 starts are the most in the NHL. He has a career .917 SV%. Last season was his lowest SV% at .906. Prior to that it was always .914 or better.

Jacob Markstrom

Six years, $6 million per season

Percentage of the Cap: 7.36%
Age at the Start of Contract: 30
Age when Contract Expires: 36

Markstrom signed this contract with the Calgary Flames as a free agent in 2020. In his final three seasons with the Vancouver Canucks, he posted SV% of .912 or better each year. In his final season, he finished fourth in Vezina voting. Over his last three seasons with the Canucks, he made the eighth most starts in the NHL, but he was 26th in SV% (to be fair, it was very close for goalies in the 10-30 range).

Philipp Grubauer

Six years, $5.9 million per season

Percentage of the Cap: 7.24%
Age at the Start of the Contract: 29
Age when the Contract Expires: 35

Grubauer signed this contract with the expansion Seattle Kraken franchise to lead them through their first few seasons in the NHL. He averaged only 36 starts per year over three years with the Colorado Avalanche (two of those seasons were Covid-shortened). He posted a .918 SV% with Colorado, including a final year at .922 where he finished third in Vezina voting. During his years with the Avalanche, he had the ninth best SV% while making the 20th most starts. Before that, had a .923 SV% with the Washington Capitals, mainly as a backup.

Ullmark’s Resume

Pros: He was the Vezina winner two seasons ago, posting a ridiculous .938 SV%.  He has the best SV% in the NHL since joining Boston three seasons ago. He posted a .912 SV% with Buffalo before that. Dating back to 2019-20, his .922 SV% is the best in hockey.

Cons: He ranks only 18th in the NHL over the last three seasons in starts with 126, an average of 42 per season. Since 2019-20, he was only 18th in saves and 19th in starts. His career high for starts is 48. He will be 32 when his next contract begins.

Length of New Ullmark Contract

Linus Ullmark is older than any of the goalies mentioned above when they signed their new contracts. Giving him eight years would take him to 39 at the end of the deal. A five or six year deal would make sense for both sides.

Percentage of the Cap Expectation

It’s important to remember that the Salary Cap for next season is expected to be somewhere in the $92 million range. Let’s use that as the number moving forward. If Hellebuyck is the high-end for comparables at 9.66% of the cap, and Grubauer is the low-end at 7.24%, finding a spot in the middle of that makes sense.

Yes, Ullmark is a Vezina winner like Hellebuyck, but he has not been anywhere near the true number one, workhorse that Hellebuyck has been during his time in Winnipeg. As of now, 8% of the cap seems fair. If Ullmark has a great year with the Senators where he starts 60 games and earns Vezina votes, he could very well push for a bigger contract, at closer to 9% of the Cap. It wasn’t long ago that Sergei Bobrovsky earned his massive contract from the Florida Panthers that was for 12.27% of the cap. Looking at that deal now, it worked out quite nicely for both sides.

Linus Ullmark’s Projected Contract

Let’s be a mix of optimistic and realistic about this season, shall we? Ullmark will play well, showing that he is capable of playing upwards of 55 games at a quality level. If this happens, his next contract should look something like this:

Five Years, $37 million ($7.4 million per season)

That would take up just over 8% of the Cap, placing this contract between Juuse Saros and Jacob Markstrom’s deals. Ullmark would be 36 during the last year of this contract. Given the comparables and Ullmark’s resume, this seems like a fair contract. The question is, will it be signed with the Ottawa Senators, or another team?

 

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