What’s Wrong With Brady Tkachuk?

Last night was a bad game all around for the Ottawa Senators. Prior to that, though, they had gone 4-0-1 in their last five, securing nine out of a possible ten points in that time. They currently sit in a Wild Card spot, and they’re chasing down the Tampa Bay Lightning for third spot in the Atlantic Division. They’ve done this without Linus Ullmark, who’s been out since mid December with an injury. Needless to say, things are going well for the Ottawa Senators. One player who hasn’t played up to his normal standards in that time, though, is Brady Tkachuk. He has gone eight straight games without a point. So what seems to be the problem for the Sens captain? Let’s dive into what’s been going on with Brady Tkachuk.

READ MORE: Evaluating the Ridly Greig Contract

Shooting Struggles

Tkachuk has been a volume shooter his entire career. His mentality seems to be, the more shots I take, the better chance I have of scoring. To add to that, the closer I am to the net, the better chance the puck has of going in. That has worked well for him, Tkachuk averaging 30 goals per 82 games during his career. So what’s happened in these last eight games? Let’s compare his shooting numbers before and during his cold streak:

• First 39 games: 158 shots, 4.1 shots per game
• Last eight games: 28 shots, 3.5 shots per game

If you stretch those per game averages over a full 82 game season, his first 39 games translates to 332 shots, while his last eight games would be 287 shots. So there has been a little bit of a dip in his shot totals. Tkachuk has taken two shots or fewer in four of his last eight games. That is uncharacteristic of Tkachuk, who’s averaged 4.2 shots per game over the last three seasons.

There’s also a lack of luck for Tkachuk during that time. He’s a 10% this season and for his career. That should mean three goals during this time. Of course, since it’s just an eight game sample size, it doesn’t always work that way. Putting it all together, you have a volume shooter who’s shooting a little less during this stretch, and not having the puck luck, leading to no goals in eight games. There’s more to the story than that, though.

Defense-First Hockey

Here’s the Ottawa Senators rankings in goals against per game during Brady Tkachuk’s time with the team:

• 2018-19: 31st
• 2019-20: 30th
• 2020-21: 28th
• 2021-22: 22nd
• 2022-23: 20th
• 2023-24: 28th
• 2024-25: 9th

The Senators have never even been average defensively during Tkachuk’s career. All of a sudden, they’re a top ten team in goal prevention, and it’s led to the team sitting in a playoff spot. What I used to say about Tkachuk is this- if you watched him play in the offensive zone, you’d want  to run through a wall for him. If you watched him play in the defensive zone, you’d feel absolutely nothing. At times I suppose you’d feel frustration. The point being, Tkachuk wasn’t doing enough to help this team on the defensive side. That includes on the backcheck.

Jacques Martin helped him, and many other Senators, understand the importance of two-way hockey. Travis Green has continued to push for that style of play. While Tkachuk still has his defensive flaws, he’s much more committed to the defensive side of the rink this season. In a slump in past years, there’s a chance he would’ve cheated up the ice to create some offense. That’s not the case this season. During these eight games he’s only been on the ice for two even strength goals against.

Power Play Issues

15 of Tkachuk’s 38 points this season have come on the power play. That’s 39% of his points. Over the last three seasons, he’s scored 66 points on the power play, which makes up 34% of his points during that time. Needless to say, it’s a big part of his production. Guess what has happened with the power play during this time? It’s gone cold. The Senators have gone 3-23 during these last eight games. That’s just a 13% rate. I think they’ve become fairly predictable on the power play. I’d like to see more player movement, like we saw at the start of the year. Standing still isn’t a recipe for success. Other guys have to become more involved as shooters, especially Tim Stützle.

Final Thoughts

Let’s add it all up- Tkachuk is shooting a little bit less, with the team playing a more defensive game, all the while the Senators power play has gone cold. Oh, and he’s also been unlucky as a shooter; it’s not very often he’ll go nearly 30 shots without a goal. I haven’t noticed anything out of the ordinary with Tkachuk during this time. He’s had a few quiet games- the recent game against the Devils wasn’t his best. All in all, though, Tkachuk’s been okay.

Tkachuk doesn’t have the elite vision or puck skills to pick up a ton of assists. So when the power play struggles and the puck doesn’t go in for him, some lesser offensive stretches will happen. At least with Travis Green’s system in place, he’s grown to understand the importance of two-way hockey, which has helped the team go 5-2-1 during this stretch of pointless hockey from Tkachuk.

Let’s be clear, though, Brady Tkachuk is paid in large part to produce. With the Ottawa Senators looking to make the playoffs for the first time in his career, Tkachuk needs a strong final 35 games. He can’t just play good hockey, he needs to be a driving force. It’s time for the Senators power play to get going, and for Brady to have one of those monster games where he’s all over the box score. The physicality is great, the better defensive play is nice, but the offense needs to return for the Senators to end up in the playoffs.