Examining Jake Sanderson’s Resurgence

Two and a half months ago, I wrote about the strengths and weaknesses for the Ottawa Senators through their first 20 games. One of the weaknesses I highlighted: Jake Sanderson. Not long after, Sanderson was left off Team USA’s 4 Nations Face-Off roster. While that was a tough team to make given their loaded group of d-men, it was just further evidence that Sanderson’s season hadn’t gone according to plan. Flashforward to mid January, and this was Sanderson’s statline: 47 games, 2 goals, 25 points, and a team worst -17. Flashforward to today, and Jakes Sanderson is now on Team USA’s 4 Nations team and has been playing fantastic hockey. So what happened? Let’s dive into the details on Sanderson’s revival!

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The Importance of Zub

This isn’t going to be a Hamonic hit piece. He’s not the one inserting himself into the top four when someone gets injured. Having said that, there is no doubt that Sanderson’s play was negatively affected by Zub being out, and having to play with Hamonic. Here’s one part of Hamonic’s game that hurts Sanderson in particular: In the offensive zone,  Zub is much more willing to try to move the puck around. Hamonic, on the other hand, looks to put the puck towards the net when it comes to him, time after time. Here are the numbers to back that up:

• Hamonic as Sanderson’s partner: 85 shot attempts in 25 games (3.4 per game)
• Zub as Sanderson’s partner: 82 shot attempts in 30 games (2.7 per game)

Here are Sanderson’s shot numbers with the two d-men:

• With Hamonic: 105 shot attempts in 25 games (4.2 per game)
• With Zub: 165 shot attempts in 30 games (5.5 per game)

These numbers suggest that not only does Hamonic overshoot the puck, but that Sanderson gets more time in the offensive zone when playing with Zub, which makes sense when you consider how much better Zub is defensively, which helps in the transition game to create some offense.

One last comparison: The numbers that truly matter:

• Sanderson With Hamonic: 25 games, 1 goal, 14 points (0.56 points per game)
• Sanderson With Zub: 30 games, 5 goals, 21 points, (0.75 points per game)

Over 82 games, that translates to 3 goals and 46 points with Hamonic versus 14 goals and 57 points with Zub.

Here’s the problem. There were times when even with Zub, Sanderson wasn’t playing up to his normal standards. So, let’s take a deeper dive.

Unlucky Shooting

Last season, Jake Sanderson was a 6.3% shooter. Prior to January 30th, the start of his three game goal scoring streak, he was scoring on just 1.9% of his shots. For a guy that has a solid shot and good offensive abilities, scoring on such a low percentage of shots was bound to change eventually.

Here’s what made matters even worse for Sanderson. At 5 on 5, the Ottawa Senators have a shooting percentage of just 4% with Sanderson on the ice. Among NHL defensemen that have played at least 10 games, that ranked Sanderson 243rd out of 245 guys. The only two worse than him? His two partners, Hamonic and Zub. So not only has Sanderson not been scoring on his shots until recently, but the other guys on the ice haven’t been scoring either. This has led to less even strength points than you’d expect and a poor plus-minus. In his first 48 games, Sanderson had just seven even strength points. He’s managed four even strength points over his last seven games.

Looking Ahead

It wasn’t all a matter of unlucky shooting and a weaker partner. Sanderson made his share of mistakes in the early going that he’d own up to. It seemed like a case of a young player not performing to expectations, and then trying to do a little too much. Even with his rough start, Sanderson is on pace for just over 50 points this season. The only 50+ point seasons from Sens d-men in their history are from Erik Karlsson (a bunch of times), Norm MacIver, Thomas Chabot, and Wade Redden.

Jake Sanderson is only 22 years old, and he’s probably even more reliable defensively than he is offensively at this point in his career. While he’s never going to be a Karlsson type of offensive d-man, he has the makings of a two-way number one d-man that can lead the Ottawa Senators blueline for years to come. For the here and now, he just needs to come back from that 4 team tournament healthy, and have a little more shooting luck to help the Sens on their road to the playoffs.