Examining Tim Stützle’s Scoring Struggles

Two seasons ago, Tim Stützle broke out in a big way, scoring 39 goals and 90 points. Had it not been for the four games he missed, he would’ve been a 40 goal scorer in just his third season in the league. As we all should know, progress isn’t linear, and Stützle saw his numbers regress last season to 18 goals and 70 points in 75 games. Some pointed to injury as a reason for his lesser numbers, hoping he’d bounce back this season to be the top 20 scorer that he was in in 2022-23. These are his numbers this season:

• 78 games, 21 goals, 72 points

That puts him very close to his pace from last season. So why hasn’t Tim Stützle been able to replicate the numbers from a couple of seasons ago? Well, there are a few reasons. Let’s dive into the details and try to figure out the plan ahead for Stützle to become the true superstar that he has the talent to be.

READ MORE: Jake Sanderson Joins Exclusive Group in Senators History

League Wide Rankings for Tim Stützle

Among forwards, here is where Stützle has ranked over the last three seasons in key offensive categories:

• 2022-23: 20th in goals, 18th in assists, 18th in points, 48th in shots
• 2023-24: 144th in goals, 18th in assists, 45th in points, 78th in shots
• 2024-25: 101st in goals, 16th in assists, 30th in points, 116th in shots

Over the last three seasons, Stützle’s 155 assists ranks 16th amongst NHL forwards. However, he ranks just 61st in goals in that time, despite showing that he capable of scoring nearly 40 goals a couple of seasons ago, and showing himself to be a 13% shooter over the course of his career. To Stützle’s credit, he’s been better this season than last season from an all-around perspective. Goal scoring is down this season from last, and the Senators have bought into Travis’ Green defense first system, going from 3.05 goals per game to 2.86.

Perhaps the biggest standout in a negative way is Stützle’s regressing shot totals. Last year he had a nagging wrist injury that people pointed to as the reason. That hasn’t been reported this year, yet Stützle is shooting even less.

A Closer Look at Stützle’s Shot Totals

Let’s leave out last year and really focus in on his best season of two years ago in comparison with this season. Here is a deeper dive on Stützle’s shot totals:

• 2022-23: 228 shots (2.92 per game), 17.1 S%, 64 power play shots (0.82 per game)
• This Season: 147 shots (1.88 per game), 14.3 S%, 29 power play shots (0.37 per game)

He’s averaging a shot less per game, and almost half a shot less per game on the power play. When a player of Stützle’s caliber is scoring on over 14% of his shots, he should have way more than 21 goals. He’s a player who has the puck on his stick a ton and is able to get to good scoring areas with his speed and puck handling ability.

On the power play, there is one obvious change- Thomas Chabot has been replaced by Jake Sanderson on the top unit. Two seasons ago, Chabot  had 35 shots in 68 games (0.53). This season, Sanderson has 51 shots in 77 games (0.66 per game). Stützle could stand to learn from Sanderson, though. There are plenty of times when Sanderson decides to shoot because there’s traffic or a lane for his shot to get through. He’s not always waiting for the perfect high danger chance to take a shot. Stützle has become less willing to take shots that aren’t great looks.

Bottom Line

Something to remember is that Tim Stützle is not being paid like the true top players in this league. He is making 8.35 million per season. In that sense, he’s living up to his contract. It’s also been obvious that all the young Senators, Stützle included, needed to learn how to play two way hockey, which was always likely to impact their offensive numbers. It’s the two way style of play that has allowed the Senators to make the playoffs for the first time in eight years.

Two years ago, though, it was looking like Stützle’s contract was going to be one of the best bargains in the league. He still has six years left on it and is only 23 years old, so there is still time for that to materialize. In order for that to happen, he will need to work on a few things- becoming stronger and scoring more goals. That will take Stützle working his way back to more of a shooting mentality. If that happens, the closest players comparable would be Nathan MacKinnon. Those are lofty expectations, but inevitably, that’s the type of player the Senators need Stützle to become if they want to become legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.