Sens vs Leafs: Breaking Down the Battle of Ontario

Get ready, folks, the Battle of Ontario is returning to the playoffs for the first time since 2004! This marks the fifth time that the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs will meet in the playoffs. As Senators fans know, the playoff history between these two teams has not gone the way of the Sens. But let’s leave that in the past for now! It’s time to dive into the details on this year’s version of the Battle of Ontario!

READ MORE: Examining Tim Stützle’s Scoring Struggles

By the Numbers

Here are the key numbers for the two rivals:

• Maple Leafs: 3.26 goals per game (7th), 2.79 goals against per game (8th), 24.8% power play (9th), 77.9% penalty kill (17th)
• Senators: 2.95 goals per game (T-18th), 2.83 goals against per game (13th), 23.8 % power play (11th), 77.7% penalty kill (19th)

The Leafs have the goals for advantage, but everything else is extremely close. Obviously goal scoring is where the Leafs have the advantage. Here’s one other stat to remember- The Senators were 3-0 against the Maple Leafs this season, outscoring the Leafs 9-3 in the process. Also, since the trade deadline, the Maple Leafs have gone 14-5-1 while the Senators have gone 14-5-2. That makes this a matchup between two of the hottest teams in the league.

Goalies

The Maple Leafs have had quite the rotation of goalies over the last several years. They went from Frederik Anderson to Jack Campbell to Matt Murray to Ilya Samsonov to Joseph Woll. Now, you can add Anthony Stolarz to the mix. He and Woll have been a solid duo this season. Woll started 41 games and Stolarz started 33. Stolarz should be the game one starter. He’s won his last eight starts, and he’s posted a shutout in three of his last four starts to end the season. His .926 SV% is the best of any goalie that made at least 20 starts this season. The question here is whether Stolarz will be the starter throughout, given the fact that his 33 starts this year already mark a career high.

Speaking of goaltending rotations, the Senators have gone on quite the journey after Craig Anderson left. They went from Matt Murray to Cam Talbot to Joonas Korpisalo as their starters. Two guys they lost along the way, Joey Daccord and Filip Gustavsson, have become solid starters elsewhere. Finally, Staios ended the nonsense by trading for Linus Ullmark. He is the unquestioned number one goalie for the Senators and would likely be given the chance to bounce back from any poor game he might have. The concern with Ullmark is that he hasn’t shown himself to be a workhorse and hasn’t proven himself in the playoffs. His career high for starts in a year is 54. In the playoffs, he has started just nine games, going 3-6 with a .887 SV%.

Advantage: Even. Both teams believe in their goaltenders. Ullmark was exactly what the Senators needed, and Stolarz has been a fantastic signing by the Leafs. With both guys, the question is whether they can handle the grind of a playoff run.

Forwards

The Maple Leafs forwards scored 246 goals this season. The Leafs have the star power- Marner finished fifth in the league in scoring, Nylander was second in the league in goals, Tavares was twelfth in goals, and Matthews scored 30 plus goals for the ninth consecutive season despite missing 15 games. Matthew Knies is an important player to keep as eye one as well, coming off a 29 goal season. The Leafs depth up front doesn’t stand out, but the likes of Scott Laughton, Bobby McMann and Max Domi can be hard-nosed players.

The Senators forwards scored 210 goals this season. Tim Stützle is the best offensive player on the team, coming off a 79 point season. There is a lot of excitement over Brady Tkachuk finally getting his chance to play playoff hockey. If healthy, he should be a lot of fun to watch. The Senators will need the Batherson-Cozens duo to create offense for them, as they’ll likely draw the easier defensive group from the Leafs. The third line of Pinto, Amadio and Greig will be tasked with the tough defensive assignments; that’s a role they’ve thrived in down the stretch.

Advantage: Maple Leafs. Toronto has four players over 70 points, with Marner reaching the 100 point mark. Matthews is also a Hart Trophy contender at his best. The question with Toronto is their forward depth, but the Senators don’t exactly have dominant depth of their own.

Defense

The Maple Leafs don’t receive a ton of offense from their backend. Morgan Rielly scored 41 points to lead the way. They combined to score just 21 goals this season. Inevitably, the Leafs aren’t asking their defense to create offense for them. They are there to defend and play a physical game. They have a solid top five of Rielly, Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Tanev, and Carlo. When you think of the Leafs playoff failures, they were often lacking in physicality and work ethic. Tanev, Carlo and Ekman-Larsson are all new this season, and have all made deep playoff runs with other teams. They should help with those problems.

The Senators have the two highest scoring d-men in the series, with Jake Sanderson scoring 57 points and Thomas Chabot scoring 45. Their backend scored 32 goals, with most of them coming in the second half of the season. Sanderson is the best defenseman in this series. He closed out the season with 35 points in his last 40 games, playing nearly 25 minutes a night in all situations. Zub and Jensen offer the Sens solid defensive players to be partnered with Sanderson and Chabot. The question for the Sens in their depth. Kleven will play on the bottom pair, either with Matinpalo or Hamonic. That’s a third pairing that the Leafs will try to take advantage of.

Advantage: Senators. The reason to pick the Maple Leafs here is because they have the better depth, running a solid top five. The Sens counter that with Jake Sanderson, though, who is undoubtedly the best defenseman in the series. Having Chabot on the second pair is a nice luxury as well.

Coaching

Both teams hired new coaches in the offseason. Craig Berube helped the Leafs go from 21st in goals against to eighth. Travis Green helped the Sens shave off 0.6 goals against per game compared to last season. It’s hard to judge Berube yet, because the playoffs are all the matters for the Leafs at this point. Undoubtedly, both teams have bought into their new coaches system and style of play. Now, it’s about carrying that into the playoffs.

Advantage: Maple Leafs. Craig Berube has already shown the ability to win a Stanley Cup as a head coach. Travis Green has been highly valuable to the Senators this season, but this is just his second time making the playoffs as a head coach.

Bottom Line

The Maple Leafs are rightly favoured to win this series. This is their ninth straight trip to the playoffs, while the Senators are making their first trip to the playoffs in eight years. The Leafs have a Stanley Cup winning head coach leading the way, a stacked group of forwards, and have played solid defensive hockey this season.

If the Senators are to complete the upset, here’s what will need to happen- Ullmark will need to be the best goalie in the series, Stützle will have to keep up with the Leafs best forwards, Tkachuk will need to bring the same type of play that we saw at the 4 Nations Face-Off, Sanderson will need to be his normal self, and the Greig, Pinto, Amadio line will need to slow down the Leafs top scorers. It’s asking a lot, but that’s what it takes to win in the playoffs.