Five Keys For the Senators to Win Game Four

It’s do or die time for the Ottawa Senators. After back-to-back overtime heartbreaks, the Senators will now have to try to reverse sweep the Toronto Maple Leafs. Only four teams in NHL history have ever come back from down three to nothing in a playoff series. The Maple Leafs have played a great defensive series, limiting the Senators to just two goals in each of the three games. In a desperate game three for the Senators, with a raucous home crowd on their side, they managed just 20 shots. While winning four games in a row is daunting, the Senators will likely have the mindset of one game at a time. That starts tonight with game four. Let’s dive into the details on how the Senators can come out on top for the first time in this series.

READ MORE: The History of the Battle of Ontario

Win the Goalie Battle

The Senators have outshot the Maple Leafs 81 to 65 through three games, yet have been outscored 12-6. Anthony Stolarz has a .926 SV% while Linus Ullmark is at just .815. Ullmark needs to better at stopping the first shot. He’s been beating clean too often, including a few from distance. It’s pretty simple- if Ullmark is outplayed again in this series, the Leafs will move on. The Sens need the Ullmark from December to come back, where at one point he rolled off seven straight wins and posted a SV% of .967 during that time.

Adjust Offensive Strategy

This Leafs defensive strategy reminds me of when the Senators lost to the New York Rangers in seven games back in 2012. Like the Rangers back then, the Leafs have allowed the Senators to move the puck back to the point, where they then do everything they can to block those shots from distance. The Leafs currently rank second in this year’s playoffs with 22 blocked shots per 60 minutes. The Senators rank 14th with just over 11. The Sens have their share of strong gritty forwards. It’s time to work the puck down low, where the likes of Tkachuk, Greig, Perron, Zetterlund, Cousins and a few others should hold their own against an admittedly strong Leafs defense. Try to find the lane out front as opposed to playing into the Leafs hand with the constant passes to the defense.

Stay Out of the Box

Fun fact- the two best penalty kills in last year’s playoffs were the two teams that ended up in the Finals- The Oilers were at an insane 94.3%, while the Panthers were at 88%. It doesn’t always work that way. The year prior, the Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup with just a 73.3% penalty kill. The key for them was that they were shorthanded the fourth least per game in the playoffs that year. If you can’t kill off penalties, don’t take them!

The Senators penalty kill has been abysmal, giving up five power play goals so far. As much as you’d like to see them adjust and come out on top in this battle, it seems unlikely given how the first three games have gone. The Senators have taken way too many offensive zone penalties in this series. Batherson’s high sticking penalty in the last game was costly, allowing the Leafs to tie the game.

Keep Up the Physicality

The playoffs are a marathon. Yes, the Senators are one game away from being eliminated, but they shouldn’t change the strategy of trying to wear the Leafs down. They need to stick to their style of hockey, which is physical. In the regular season, they were fourth in the NHL with over 2,000 hits. During these first three playoff games, their 47 hits per 60 minutes ranks them first. Trying to balance playing physical and not taking penalties can be tough, but the Senators will lose if they decide to play more of a skilled game against the Leafs.

Insert Yakemchuk

This might just be wishful thinking on my part. Carter Yakemchuk has now joined the team after his Calgary Hitmen were eliminated from the WHL playoffs. Two teams have recently added their 2024 first round draft picks to their lineup for the playoffs- Montreal, with Ivan Demidov, and Minnesota, with Zeev Buium. There was also the famous 2003 playoff moment for the Senators. Down three to one in the Conference Finals, a young Jason Spezza was inserted into the lineup. He delivered a first star performance with a goal and an assist to help the Sens survive. Who knows, with his heavy shot, maybe Yakemchuk could find a way to have his own special playoff moment.