Senators-Maple Leafs Game 6 Preview: Pressure is on the Leafs

Tonight, the Senators look to stave off elimination for the third straight game in their first round series against the Maple Leafs. Jake Sanderson was the hero in game four, and Linus Ullmark posted his first career playoff shutout in game five to help the Sens return the series to Ottawa. Let’s be clear about something. This has been a successful year for the Sens. They made the playoffs for the first time since 2017. They’ve seen growth from several of their young players. For the Leafs, though, winning in the playoffs is all that matters at this point. After years of disappointing playoff exits, another early round exit may very well be the end for their core group. In that sense, all the pressure is on the Leafs. Let’s dive into the details and preview what’s ahead for game six!

READ MORE: The History of the Battle of Ontario

Maple Leafs Perspective

Yes, this is indeed Ottawa Hockey Now, but why not take a look at what’s transpired with the Leafs over the years. They’ve lost eight of the nine playoff series they’ve been in since 2017. Of those eight series losses, five went to game seven, and one was the game five loss in the best of five qualifying round during the 2020 Covid playoffs. Here’s the difference between Marner, Matthews, Nylander and Tavares in the regular season compared to the playoffs while with the Leafs:

• Matthews: 1.16 points per game in the regular season, 0.9 in the playoffs
• Marner: 1.13 points per game in the regular season, 0.92 in the playoffs
• Tavares: 0.96 points per game in the regular season, 0.67 in the playoffs
• Nylander: 0.9 points per game in the regular season, 0.83 in the playoffs

The reality is, all four of these guys have performed well in this year’s playoffs, combining for 24 points in the five games. Unfortunately for them, a lot of the concern has been during the later part of their playoff series’, in games five, six, and seven. In game five against the Senators, these four and the whole Leafs team were shut out at home. Needless to say, they will be feeling the pressure to perform in game six, or else they will undoubtedly hear it from the Leafs fans and media.

Senators Keys to Forcing Game 7

The two biggest changes that allowed the Sens to work it to game six was the penalty kill, and the play of Linus Ullmark. Here are the splits on both fronts:

Ullmark:

• Games 1-3: 52 saves on 65 shots (.815 SV%)
• Games 4-5: 60 saves on 63 shots (.952 SV%)

Senators Penalty Kill:

• Games 1-3: 5 goals allowed on 9 attempts (44.4%)
• Games 4-5: 0 goals allowed on 7 attempts (100%), plus two shorthanded goals

These will once again be the two most important factors in game six. Ullmark needs to be the better goalie, and the Sens kill needs to hold down a loaded Leafs power play. Beyond that, there are a few other factors to take a look at.

Batherson Break-Out

Before game five, I wrote about the Sens needing more from Batherson and Cozens. Cozens delivered with a shorthanded goal and going 64% on faceoffs. Now, it’s Batherson’s turn. He’s had a tough series in a number of ways, but there were good signs in game five. He went to the net with authority a few times, and he was inches away from a goal in the first period. It’s not as if Batherson needs to score in order for the Sens to win. It would be a monumental moment if he could make that happen, though, with both the players and fans understanding the magnitude of Batherson scoring a goal after a rough series. Even if he can’t score, he needs to be better than taking bad penalties as he has during this series.

Final Thoughts

There’s a lot to like for the Senators right now. Jake Sanderson has been the best defenseman on the ice the last two games. Tim Stützle is playing with a lot of confidence right now. Brady Tkachuk has made a difference physically and offensively. The Pinto, Greig, Amadio line has taken on a heavy workload in a challenging role and handled it quite well. Inevitably, the Maple Leafs are extremely talented, and are hoping that their new coach can help them figure out how to close out the series. Craig Berube can say all the right things, but it will be up to the star players mentioned above to make it happen.

Yes, the Leafs have the pressure squarely on them, but the Senators need to realize that every detail will matter in allowing them to take this series back to Toronto. Buckle up, folks!