Should the Senators Keep Their 1st Round Pick?

In case you missed it, the New York Islanders won last night’s Draft Lottery, landing the first overall pick. With the Senators making the playoffs and bowing out in the first round, they were already locked into the 21st overall pick in the 2025 draft. Well, not exactly. Steve Staios and company have an interesting decision to make. The Senators have to forfeit a first round pick either this year or next due to the Evgeni Dadonov trade fiasco back in 2021. So, what should the Senators do? Let’s dive into the details.

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Staios Tips Hand

Let’s start with what Steve Staios has to say about the matter. He has essentially said that the Senators will be keeping the pick. While he hasn’t guaranteed it, he used the words “highly likely” in regards to keeping the 2025 1st round pick. So, that makes it pretty clear that unless something changes, Senators fans can expect the team to make a first round selection on June 27th. The question is, is that the right decision?

Reasons to Forfeit the Pick

Let’s look at both sides of the argument, starting with why the Senators should forfeit the pick. For starters, this isn’t seen as a can’t miss type of draft, loaded with unbelievable talent. There’s also the fear of the Senators falling out of the playoff picture next season, and then having to forfeit a lottery pick. Next year’s top pick is expected to be Gavin McKenna, who is turning heads with his dominance in the WHL. Including the playoffs, he has 164 points in 69 games this year. Even a small chance at landing him needs to be put into the equation.

Reasons to Keep the Pick

The Senators have one of the worst prospect pools in all of hockey. Earlier this year, Scott Wheeler ranked their pool 27th. As a small market franchise, drafting well is essential. Many of the Sens current top players have come through the draft. They need to continue to prioritize drafting well. Carter Yakemchuk is their only 1st round pick in the last three years. Forfeiting this year’s pick, and then waiting a whole year to have just their second 1st round pick in five years seems like a mistake. Especially if this team continues to progress, which is what Staios believes will happen.

A good offseason and the growth of their young core could have them picking even later a year from now. The Sens would be better off making their 2025 pick, and then banking on team growth which will have the loss of next year’s pick not sting quite as much. If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m fully on this side of the argument.

Final Thoughts

There is a third option, which is to trade the pick for more immediate help. That doesn’t make a ton of sense, given how weak their prospect pool is. Also, there are alternative options to adding talent that don’t involve giving up such a valuable pick. That means being involved in free agency. Staios showed he was willing to be active last year when he added Amadio and Perron early on in the free agent process.

Michael Andlauer is hoping that by the Senators showing themselves to be a respectful organization, Gary Bettman might, at the very least, lessen the punishment. There is precedent. The New Jersey Devils were forced to forfeit a 1st round pick for the Ilya Kovalchuk contract over a decade ago. After keeping their pick for a few years, Bettman eventually gave them the 30th overall pick during the year that they were going to be forced to lose their pick. Andlauer is hoping that the more time passes, and the more the Sens can show themselves to be a gracious, humble organization, the more likely it is that Bettman will do something like that for them.

The Senators currently have a pick in every round for the 2025 draft except the 2nd. Next year, if they do indeed have to forfeit their 1st round pick, they still have a 2nd, three 3rds, a 5th and two 6ths. As for who the Senators will be looking at with the 21st overall pick, that can be another article for another day.